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Data analysis

One state lost twice
the national gain

Data analysis Swechha The Journal

India's own forest report records a net increase of 156.41 km² between 2021 and 2023. Madhya Pradesh alone lost 371.54 km². Both figures are in the same table, and the second is the one that does not survive being averaged.

What the report says

The India State of Forest Report is India's official assessment and the number it reports to the FAO. This is what its own tables contain.

The India State of Forest Report 2023, published by the Forest Survey of India, records national forest cover at 715,342.61 km² — 21.76 per cent of the country's geographical area. Against its own revised 2021 figure, that is a net increase of 156.41 km².

The same table records the state-level components. Madhya Pradesh lost 371.54 km². Andhra Pradesh lost 138.66, Telangana 100.42, Tripura 95.31, Arunachal Pradesh 91.17. Mizoram gained 241.73, Gujarat 180.07, Odisha 151.89.

The national net gain is smaller than the loss in one state, and smaller than the gain in a different one.

Why a net figure is the wrong shape

A net figure is a subtraction, and a subtraction hides both of its terms. Reported alone, 156.41 km² describes a country where nothing much happened. The components describe a country where a great deal happened in opposite directions in different places.

The scale matters too. 156.41 km² on a base of 715,342.61 km² is a change of about two hundredths of one per cent — well inside what a mapping method can produce by changing nothing on the ground. Reading it as a trend asks more of the measurement than the measurement can carry.

This is not a criticism of the report, which publishes every one of these numbers. It is a criticism of how the report is quoted.

The arithmetic

Every figure below carries the moment it was observed and the source that published it. None of them moves after this date.

156.41 km²

National net change in forest cover, 2021 to 2023

Forest Survey of India · observed ISFR 2023, Table 2.2

371.54 km²

Forest cover lost in Madhya Pradesh alone

Forest Survey of India · observed ISFR 2023, Table 2.2

241.73 km²

Forest cover gained in Mizoram alone

Forest Survey of India · observed ISFR 2023, Table 2.2

715,342.61 km²

National forest cover, 2023 — the base the net change sits on

Forest Survey of India · observed ISFR 2023, Table 2.3

2.43 million ha

Cumulative tree-cover loss, 2001–2025, at a 30% canopy threshold

Global Forest Watch, World Resources Institute · observed Hansen / UMD series, dataset v20260407

Counted or measuredModelled

The satellite series appears to contradict the national report and does not. Forest cover counts canopy above 10 per cent density on land over a hectare, whatever species is growing there: a plantation counts, an orchard can count. Tree-cover loss counts canopy disappearing, whatever it was: a plantation harvested on schedule is a loss, and a loss again at the next rotation.

So a natural forest replaced by a plantation of similar density is no change to the first measure and a loss and then a gain to the second. Neither number is wrong and neither can be corrected by the other.

The satellite figure also depends on a choice. At a 30 per cent canopy threshold India's cumulative loss is 2.43 million hectares; at 10 per cent it is 2.62 million. The thresholds are nested subsets, so summing across them multiplies the answer by roughly eight — an error common enough that the dataset's own publisher warns about it.

What survives the definitional argument

Separated on purpose. The second list is content, not a disclaimer.

The claim that survives every definitional argument is the one made from a single table: a national net change of 156.41 km² is less than the loss recorded in one state. That is division on two numbers the same report published on the same page. It needs no second source and no reconciliation.

It is also the claim that changes what you would do about it. A national net gain suggests monitoring. A state losing 371.54 km² while the national figure improves suggests looking at Madhya Pradesh.

Known

  • ISFR 2023 records a national net increase of 156.41 km² in forest cover against its own revised 2021 base.
  • The same report records Madhya Pradesh losing 371.54 km² and Mizoram gaining 241.73 km².
  • The Hansen series records 2.43 million hectares of cumulative tree-cover loss in India since 2001 at a 30 per cent canopy threshold.
  • The two series measure different things, and the difference is definitional rather than an error in either.

Uncertain

  • What kind of forest changed. A canopy measure cannot distinguish plantation from primary forest, and neither series reports ecosystem condition.
  • Why Madhya Pradesh lost what it lost. A loss figure does not attribute a cause.
  • Whether a two-year national change of two hundredths of one per cent is a real change at all, or within the method's own resolution.
  • How much of the satellite-measured loss is rotational harvesting rather than clearance. The primary-forest subset is the closer proxy and it is a much smaller number.

Sources, and what to watch next

Everything above is traceable to one of these.

What to watch

  • ISFR 2025, due on the report's biennial cadence, and specifically whether its revision to the 2023 base is larger than the change it reports.
  • The state tables rather than the national headline — that is where anything that has actually happened will be visible first.
  • Whether the primary-forest loss subset of the satellite series moves independently of total tree-cover loss.

Reuse freely — CC BY 4.0. Terms, method and limitations.

Next

The explanation behind it, the live reading, and the archive.

LearnIs India losing forest?The concept behind the figures above. LearnForest cover or tree cover?The concept behind the figures above. LearnWhat does tree-cover loss mean?The concept behind the figures above. LiveForest lossBoth sources on one page, with the disagreement printed. RecordWhat is keptEvery subject, its source and its cadence.